What does the data say?
Generated from the data: each insight reflects this month’s numbers, with its supporting evidence and a recommended next step.
What is happening?
- ObservedPortfolio
Cancellations reached 7,563. The cancel rate rose from 15.3% to 19.9%, well above the 15.5% norm.
- ObservedWhere
North Carolina drove 99% of the increase: its cancellations rose +198%. Every other state stayed flat (−1% to +1%).
- ObservedWhich channels
Inside North Carolina, the problem sits in Digital Partner and D2D: 43.6% and 38.6% of sales cancelled, against 16% to 18% in other channels.
- ObservedProblem 1: sales quality
Agency Gamma, Agency Beta and Agency Alpha broke from their own history (+20 pp to +29 pp). At Agency Alpha, new reps made 56% of sales but 75% of cancellations. Poor quality sales explain 955 cancellations (32%).
- Forward-lookingOctober prevention: sales quality
Score each of the 6,700 October D2D and Digital Partner orders in North Carolina for cancellation risk: low intent (27%), promotion sensitivity (38%), competitor mention (21%), price or offer mismatch (24% fail independent confirmation) and rep risk (56% of sales from Critical reps). Verify the riskiest orders before installation and coach Critical reps: about 500 cancellations avoided.
- ObservedProblem 2, the bigger one: customer contact
1,313 cancellations (44%) came from customers we could not confirm or reach for the appointment. Separately, 48% carried a Pending Customer Contact signal: a different measure from the cause.
- ObservedWhen
Most customers are lost late: 57% cancel after the due date (64% in North Carolina), led by tech on job, reschedule and no access / not home.
- Forward-lookingOctober prevention: high-value customers
Combine each order's cancellation-risk score with customer value, the ODD and permit and construction readiness. Of 650 North Carolina delivery-risk orders, 150 high-value customers are ready but scheduled late: bring their installation forward. 185 have an ODD that cannot be met: correct the commitment before it fails. About 175 cancellations avoided.
- Forward-lookingOctober outlook
Without action, October reaches 21.5% (North Carolina 40.9%). With the three actions, about 18.3%: roughly 1,275 cancellations avoided.
- Forward-lookingWhat to do now
Verify risky sales (500), protect high-value customers (175) and rescue customer contact (600). Take action.
September cancellations increased 36% month over month
The movement is well outside the typical monthly change of about 2% observed earlier in the year, while sales moved +5%.
- Cancellations 5,568 to 7,563; sales 36,328 to 38,003
- Cancel rate 15.3% to 19.9%
- Approximately 1,687 cancellations above the 15.5% baseline rate
North Carolina cancellations increased 198%
North Carolina contributes 99% of the portfolio cancellation increase; the next highest state moved +1%.
- Cancel rate 32.3%; Post ODD 64%; Customer Miss 74%
- Pending Customer Contact 48%
D2D is the focus channel
D2D accounts for 52% of the cancellation increase at a 25.0% cancel rate; the remaining channels moved considerably less.
- Post ODD 59%; Customer Miss 71%; Pending Customer Contact 36%
Post ODD cancellations increased from 43% to 57%
Customers are increasingly lost late in the order lifecycle, after the committed date has passed.
- Post ODD cancellations 2,394 to 4,311 (+80%)
- Pre ODD share 47% to 34%; On ODD 10% to 9%
Pending Customer Contact increased materially (20% to 31%)
Unresolved customer contact is the strongest early warning signal and is visible before the cancellation occurs.
- Install in Jeopardy 8% and BSW Delay Predicted 4% remain low by comparison
- Approximately 2,344 September cancellations carried this signal
No Access / Not Home, Customer Reschedules, Cancelled while Tech on Job increased sharply
These reasons describe customers who are not ready or available at the appointment: an engagement issue rather than a build issue.
- No Access / Not Home: 792 to 1,271 (+60%)
- Customer Requested Reschedule: 597 to 1,064 (+78%)
- Cancelled while Tech on Job: 447 to 844 (+89%)
Network and BSW readiness are not the driver
Predictive BSW and jeopardy signals stayed low while customer contact signals rose, which rules out a broad network readiness issue.
- Install in Jeopardy 8%; Company Miss 25% (28% prior)
Executive questionsThe five executive questions, answered by the dataExpand to read each answer with its evidence and recommended next step.
1Why did cancellations increase, and what is driving the change?
September sales rose about 5% but cancellations rose about 36%, so the increase is not demand volume. Something changed after the order was created.
Evidence: 38,003 sales and 7,563 cancellations; cancel rate 15.3% to 19.9% against a ~15.5% Jan to Aug baseline.
Recommended next step: Drill state, then channel, agency and representative.
Open Monthly Overview2Where in the Sales to Install lifecycle are we losing customers?
Late: 57% of September cancellations happen after the original due date (43% in August); about 64% in North Carolina.
Evidence: Pre / On / Post ODD 2,571 / 681 / 4,311.
Recommended next step: Focus on appointment readiness and unresolved customer contact.
Open ODD Timing3Which channels, partners, markets or teams are contributing most?
North Carolina adds ~1,983 of the ~1,995 incremental cancellations. Within it, D2D (Agency Alpha) and Digital Partner (Agencies Beta and Gamma) are the outliers, and Alpha's September mix shifted to new representatives.
Evidence: NC 2,983 cancels at 32.3%; D2D 38.6%, Digital Partner 43.6%; Alpha's new reps are 56% of its sales and 75% of its cancellations.
Recommended next step: Verify risky sales and coach Critical representatives rather than restricting whole channels.
Open September State Drill / NC Agency September4How many cancellations could we have seen coming?
Watchtower showed Pending Customer Contact on 48% of North Carolina cancellations before they happened; customer contact / appointment readiness is the primary driver for 1,313 (44%).
Evidence: NC Watchtower 29 / 48 / 13 / 6 / 4 (No Action / Pending / Action / Jeopardy / BSW).
Recommended next step: Use Pending Customer Contact as the trigger for rescue.
Open Watchtower Signals / NC Primary Drivers5What should Brightspeed do next, and is the action working?
Run the three prevention layers in North Carolina: Sales Quality (~500 saves), BSW / Install Risk (~175) and Root Cause / contact rescue (~600). October moves from 21.5% (no action) to ~18.3%.
Evidence: October no action 8,579 cancels; targeted 7,304; ~1,275 prevented.
Recommended next step: Track cancel rate, Post ODD share, Pending Customer Contact and Critical rep share.
Open October Prevention