Command Center

Hey there,September cancellations +36% vs Unique Sales +5%

North Carolina drives almost all of it, through two problems: sales quality and customer contact.

1. 1
   ObservedPortfolio

   Cancellations reached 7,563. The cancel rate rose from 15.3% to 19.9%, well above the 15.5% norm.See evidence

2. 2
   ObservedWhere

   North Carolina drove 99% of the increase: its cancellations rose +198%. Every other state stayed flat (−1% to +1%).See evidence

3. 3
   ObservedWhich channels

   Inside North Carolina, the problem sits in Digital Partner and D2D: 43.6% and 38.6% of sales cancelled, against 16% to 18% in other channels.See evidence

4. 4
   ObservedProblem 1: sales quality

   Agency Gamma, Agency Beta and Agency Alpha broke from their own history (+20 pp to +29 pp). At Agency Alpha, new reps made 56% of sales but 75% of cancellations. Poor quality sales explain 955 cancellations (32%).See evidence

5. 5
   Forward-lookingOctober prevention: sales quality

   Score each of the 6,700 October D2D and Digital Partner orders in North Carolina for cancellation risk: low intent (27%), promotion sensitivity (38%), competitor mention (21%), price or offer mismatch (24% fail independent confirmation) and rep risk (56% of sales from Critical reps). Verify the riskiest orders before installation and coach Critical reps: about 500 cancellations avoided.See evidence

6. 6
   ObservedProblem 2, the bigger one: customer contact

   1,313 cancellations (44%) came from customers we could not confirm or reach for the appointment. Separately, 48% carried a Pending Customer Contact signal: a different measure from the cause.See evidence

7. 7
   ObservedWhen

   Most customers are lost late: 57% cancel after the due date (64% in North Carolina), led by tech on job, reschedule and no access / not home.See evidence

8. 8
   Forward-lookingOctober prevention: high-value customers

   Combine each order's cancellation-risk score with customer value, the ODD and permit and construction readiness. Of 650 North Carolina delivery-risk orders, 150 high-value customers are ready but scheduled late: bring their installation forward. 185 have an ODD that cannot be met: correct the commitment before it fails. About 175 cancellations avoided.See evidence

9. 9
   Forward-lookingOctober outlook

   Without action, October reaches 21.5% (North Carolina 40.9%). With the three actions, about 18.3%: roughly 1,275 cancellations avoided.See evidence

10. 10
    Forward-lookingWhat to do now

    Verify risky sales (500), protect high-value customers (175) and rescue customer contact (600). Take action.See evidence